brexit uk property market

#Brexit Impact on UK Property Market

In light of the LEAVE decision from the EU referendum there may be effects on the UK property market.

The headlines:

The immediate impact has been market uncertainty, the FTSE has dropped approx. 10% since the decision was announced and major house builders like Taylor Wimpey, Permission, Barratts, and Berkley Homes have all lost between a third and half their value.

Further the sterling has dropped against the dollar from 1.50 to 1.30 and that is still falling.

Interest Rates

The EuroZone base rate is already negative and some experts are expecting the Bank of England to drop the UK base rate to zero to boost the economy and this may be further pushed in order to keep inflation low in the light of the currency falls which will impact the cost of imports.

The Bank of England will want to encourage investment in the economy therefore rates will remain low.

Supply

There has been an increase in construction activity over the past 24 months, buoyed by relaxation of some planning laws and extension of permitted development rights.

Although the market impact on large house builders, they will still want to complete projects, even if new project starts are delayed.

Demand

There are many factors that influence demand and attractiveness for housing in the UK that are not EU related, such as depth of skills, education, lifestyle and language. Further to this, supply is always below demand with an increase in the number of households and smaller family units. The affordable end of the market will continue to have the highest demand.

High end property, in particular may see an increase in demand as Dollar based Middle east and Asian investors will now consider the short term buying opportunities within the property market and look to acquire residential property priced above £1million. The currency correction more than compensates for the changes in stamp duty which had previously discouraged high value property transactions.

House Prices

House prices will depend on regional factors and differences. Some regions may see a correction some may stagnate; however it is too early to speculate specifics.

Rental Market

Rental market is linked to employment as well as affordability and ability of renters to become home owners. The rental market especially in London and the South East is also heavily influenced by migrant workers and students, depending on how working rights and students will be impacted will determine long term effects.

Lending

The measures in the budget in April already discourage buy to let purchases, therefore banks currently have more than the usual surplus to lend, this is reflective in the record low rates on the market.

Lenders may tighten criteria especially on rental expectation but overall lending should not be adversely effected in the short run.

Investment

Investment especially in buy to let has slowed since the introduction of measures in the budget, however with lower interest rates expected, as well as the drop in sterling, investing in the UK is now cheaper, together with the low savings rates in banks, property investment is by far the better investment.

Conclusion

Overall Article 50 will only be exercised after a new leader is elected and then after 24 months will Britain actually leave, therefore uncertainty may remain till then end of 2018, however not much else will change.

The UK Property market will remain resilient and still a strong place to invest.

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