brexit uk property market

#Brexit Impact on UK Property Market

In light of the LEAVE decision from the EU referendum there may be effects on the UK property market.

The headlines:

The immediate impact has been market uncertainty, the FTSE has dropped approx. 10% since the decision was announced and major house builders like Taylor Wimpey, Permission, Barratts, and Berkley Homes have all lost between a third and half their value.

Further the sterling has dropped against the dollar from 1.50 to 1.30 and that is still falling.

Interest Rates

The EuroZone base rate is already negative and some experts are expecting the Bank of England to drop the UK base rate to zero to boost the economy and this may be further pushed in order to keep inflation low in the light of the currency falls which will impact the cost of imports.

The Bank of England will want to encourage investment in the economy therefore rates will remain low.

Supply

There has been an increase in construction activity over the past 24 months, buoyed by relaxation of some planning laws and extension of permitted development rights.

Although the market impact on large house builders, they will still want to complete projects, even if new project starts are delayed.

Demand

There are many factors that influence demand and attractiveness for housing in the UK that are not EU related, such as depth of skills, education, lifestyle and language. Further to this, supply is always below demand with an increase in the number of households and smaller family units. The affordable end of the market will continue to have the highest demand.

High end property, in particular may see an increase in demand as Dollar based Middle east and Asian investors will now consider the short term buying opportunities within the property market and look to acquire residential property priced above £1million. The currency correction more than compensates for the changes in stamp duty which had previously discouraged high value property transactions.

House Prices

House prices will depend on regional factors and differences. Some regions may see a correction some may stagnate; however it is too early to speculate specifics.

Rental Market

Rental market is linked to employment as well as affordability and ability of renters to become home owners. The rental market especially in London and the South East is also heavily influenced by migrant workers and students, depending on how working rights and students will be impacted will determine long term effects.

Lending

The measures in the budget in April already discourage buy to let purchases, therefore banks currently have more than the usual surplus to lend, this is reflective in the record low rates on the market.

Lenders may tighten criteria especially on rental expectation but overall lending should not be adversely effected in the short run.

Investment

Investment especially in buy to let has slowed since the introduction of measures in the budget, however with lower interest rates expected, as well as the drop in sterling, investing in the UK is now cheaper, together with the low savings rates in banks, property investment is by far the better investment.

Conclusion

Overall Article 50 will only be exercised after a new leader is elected and then after 24 months will Britain actually leave, therefore uncertainty may remain till then end of 2018, however not much else will change.

The UK Property market will remain resilient and still a strong place to invest.

Stamp Duty rise won’t kill property investment

On the 1st of April 2016, the “Landlord Tax” or stamp duty surcharge comes into affect of a 3% surcharge for anyone buying a second home or an investment or buy to let property.

However what will be the impact for the property investor? Will it reduce prices or first time buyers? Will the extra cost be passed on to renters? Will the UK property market crash?

Today the ONS released statistics that property prices are rising 6.7% year on year in 2015, and that is 9.4% in the UK. So in effect and extra 3% is the same as if you delay the purchase of your property in London by 4 months, or alternatively you will cover the cost by the increase in prices within 4 months.

Stamp duty increaseWell this is not exactly the case as usually a buy to let investor puts in about 25% deposit, and stamp duty is not covered by the mortgage value, so really the buyer needs that much extra cash available.

In this case an investor may try to pass on the additional cost to the renter. This will be a completely possible strategy and the property market will allow it. However will this make up the difference. For example a residential property yielding 6%, there for a 3% stamp duty surcharge would mean 6 months rent. If the Landlord increases rents by say 10% then it will take 5 years to recover the surcharge.

But, and its a big but, with the FTSE being volatile and the interest rates not likely to rise anywhere near enough to compete with property, an investors best place to invest is still property.

In conclusion the stamp duty surcharge will not really put investors off, it will just increase rents and increase the tax revenue.  

Stamp duty

Do you want to avoid the stamp duty surcharge?

Look into other options for property investment. Contact us we have a number of opportunities where you can invest in property development deals, with profit shares or fixed incomes. Contact info@propvestment.com

 

Sources:

BBC Article

 

Buy to Let mortgages

UK Property Market Update – Winter 2013

The UK property bubble is building

  • The average family home is up £5,583 and London properties have increased by more than £7,000.UK property prices went up by £7,430 in October
  • Average sale price in London is now £404,199
  • Help to Buy scheme is inflating prices
  • Rents increase 11% to £785pm, 41% of the average UK wage.

UK rents

UK property Sale prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average UK Property Prices In London, where the average sale price is higher than ever, 14 people compete for every property.

Mortgage applications rose by 6% in October, and almost double 2012 numbers. It comes as the Council of Mortgage Lenders said last week the number of homes sold this year will be more than one million for the first time since the financial crisis began in 2007.

The government Help to Buy scheme is pushing prices up.

Out of the 5,375 sold so far, the highest number of Help to Buy sales have been in Leeds, Wiltshire, Milton Keynes and Reading.

The average price of a UK property bought under the Help to Buy scheme was £194,167, with an average equity loan of £38,703.

UK property transactions

Critics warned the UK-wide second phase of the scheme, which began last month and is not restricted to new-builds, would cause a housing bubble.

It guarantees 15 % of the value of the home loan.

After almost coming off the market, Buy to Let mortgages are also being approved strongly. Landlords and investors are buying up and completing deals to keep up with the increasing rent demand and to cash in on the rental increases. This is a very encouraging sign for property investment.

However as the final graphic shows there is still not enough supply in the market, especially in London where there are almost 3 offers for every sale.

PropVestment’s thoughts

Offers and Sales

Yes the UK property market is picking up and in fact picking up a little too fast. But this is mainly due to the Help to Buy scheme which is resulting in unrealistic implications on price and the market. The only ones to benefit are the banks and house builders. First time buyers, buying under the scheme face higher interest rates compared to traditional mortgage products.   
The market right now is too competitive and sellers can take advantage. We do however have concerns that many first time buyers under Help to Buy will suffer from negative equity in years to come once the Government pulls the plug on the scheme and prices fall back to their realistic, natural and sustainable level.

Buy to Let mortgages

Source: Daily Mail

PropVestment 2013 – UK Property Market Outlook

UK Property 2013 – House Prices, Lending, Supply, Rents…

There is always much speculation about how the UK property market will fair when we start a new year. How will the market correlate to the economy as a whole, and the biggest question of all is whether its recovering from the credit crunch?

  • House Prices
  • Lending
  • Supply
  • Rents

UK House Prices in 2013

House prices are low currently and the advise from PropVestment is that property prices will not stay low forever. Simple demand and supply, population is growing faster than new supply, together with smaller family units means shortage. Further lending is still tight but there is major pressure to improve. If you can afford to buy now, do it.

Today Rightmove are claiming that sellers are pricing 0.2% higher in 2013

UK Property Lending in 2013

Investment property services

Lending to first time home buyers in the UK increased 11% in 2012 compared to 2011, however this is still considerably lower than pre credit crunch. There is constant pressure on lenders to lend more but the criteria remains tight. Hopefully 2013 will mean more realistic and universal schemes rolled out by lenders, with more scope than last years NewBuy and FirstBuy.

Read more

Tesco Mortgage Buy to Let

Supermarket Tesco launches 1.99% Mortgage – every little helps

Tesco Bank launches fixed 1.99% Mortgage

Tesco Mortgage Key Facts

  • Tesco Mortgage Buy to Let1.99% Fixed until end 2014
  • 4.24% There after
  • 4.00% APR
  • £995 Arrangement Fee (£195 Booking Fee, £800 Product fee)
  • 60% Maximum LTV (Loan to Value)
  • More suited for Remortgages than First Timer Buyers

 

Tesco Bank 1.99% Mortgage

Read more

How to calculate your REAL return on Investment: 5% becomes 35%

The REAL Return on Investment

Traditionally property return on investment is calculated by rental yield, especially when it is being compared to returns of other types of investments. However I believe it is a much more exact science, and can vary significantly depending on specific properties and on how the investor structured the deal when purchasing the property. A traditional yield of 5% can actually be 35% if the deal is right.

Let me start with a simple example. A two bedroom flat, bought with standard Buy-to-let 75% finance, at 5% interest only for £200,000 that is renting out for £10,000 per year. Traditional yield will be 5% (rent/value=10/200=5%). Under the way I calculate it, the rent less the mortgage interest divided by initial money in, therefore for this deal ((£10,000-£7,500)/ £50,000) so its 5%. The “real” return on investment is still the same.

But wait, what about capital gains, this is still a form of returns even though they may only be realised at a much later stage when selling and that will be liable for Capital Gains Tax. Well that is not strictly true, if the investor remortgages again after a year with similar terms, 75% of the capital gain can be realised. So if we make a very conservative and modest assumption in present gloomy market conditions of a 5% increase in value that is £10,000 and if we take 75%, and add it to the surplus cash from earlier that is a total of £10,000 return, effectively 20% return on the deposit paid. That is an amazing return, which I can’t see any other form of investment where the risks are so low and the investor has so much control over the asset.

There are certain things we have not considered like remortgage costs, legal and stamp duty, maintenance, and tenants. These will of course change calculations. Also the reason I simplify with a interest only mortgage, because if it was repayment that add to the capital or equity of the property so in effect cancels out the cost, although in realisation it will only be 75% realised when remortgaged.

Let’s be a bit more adventurous now, and add a few more clever changes to the model. We have to cap the borrowing at 75% LTV because that is the realistic maximum in the current lending condition. Let’s say the purchase price was 15% BMV (below market value) but the Mortgage was LTV, and the investor used a £10,000 personal loan at 10% compounded with capital and repayment due in two years, to part gather the deposit. So the initial investment in, is £10,000, the rest is the personal loan and the BMV saving. Assuming rent is steady; let’s look at the situation in 2 years time.

Property value in two years is now £220,500, so a refinance would raise an £15,375, less the loan that needs to be paid back (£12,100), plus £5,000 rent surplus which means £8,275 cash inflow, or 82.75% over two years on what was invested, so that is 35% return on capital invested per year.

There are incredible deals available; you can look around yourself, internet sites, auctions, personal contacts. If all else fails, contact us, info@PropVestment.com. You have to be clever with the way you invest, market condition are against us so we must beat the system and be innovative in our thinking.

Please take caution in tricky deals and do all your due diligence, the figures I use are fictional but are close to what is really possible.

How do you calculate your return on investment?

QFKUDEMEN4KX

 

Stagnant UK Property Market: Sellers’ Perspective

It has been widely reported that the current market conditions are such with very low volume of transactions, falls in mortgage approvals, and an overall stagnation in the UK property market.

House Price Crash shows very clearly the levels of mortgage approvals and the graph illustrates this with fine detail. Click on the link.

The amount of new mortgage approvals for house purchase, (but not yet lent), rose to 45,940 in May 2011 from 45,447 in April. However May’s approval figure was lower than the average for the previous six months despite the slight increase, according to figures released by the Bank of England.

Nationwide’s index has prices remaining stagnant since May, and down 1.1% annually, while Halifax has prices up 0.1 % in the same month and down 4.2% annually, while the Land Registry has prices down 2.3% annually. Overall there is clear evidence of stagnation in the market.

It is important to analyse the factors causing this and the mind set of Sellers’ and what is causing them difficulties.

Once again today the UK Base rate was held again at 0.5% for the 28th month running. It will be interesting to see the divide in the Bank of England committee when the minutes are released.

Lending to individuals

At PropVestment we sight two major problems causing this stagnation. Firstly Sellers are too over optimistic, thinking that their property should have risen along the same rise levels as seen before the credit crunch, and cannot come to terms with a possible drop in value, so they set their asking price above what is realistically achievable and representive of their property.
This means that many properties stay on the market longer, the few that are closer to realistic values and are lucky enough to attract attention of the buyers suffer from a secondary factor. Price agreed, next step acquire a mortgage approval.
When the bank valuer goes to value the property, its significantly undervalued relative to the asking price, the mortgage offer comes at a LTV of this valuation, leaving the buyer with a shortage to complete. Result, the deal falls through.

Why should a seller sell? Well with current interest rates, many PropVestors have mortgages around the 1-2% mark, they are enjoying a healthy surplus on rents and selling just means, realising Capital Gains Tax.

Therefore if one does not need funds else where, logic says to stay put, not sell and lose a chunk to the tax man and instead enjoy the cake of higher rental yields to mortgage installments.

Further as stated in our last article, it has been stated that rents, in particular in Central London, are expected to rise 8-10% in the year to come. Investors are well placed to get great returns. Especially where the mortgage costs are not looking to rise due to the base rate on hold.

The UK mortgage market is still quite inactive, even though data is showing an recent increase, from our personal experience and that of our clients, the lending criteria is very strict and stringent and only those that fall into a model profile, income base, age and credit history are the ones where mortgages are being approved. Further to this the LTV (Loan to Value) is still surprisingly low in comparison to boom times. Sellers do not want to accept the lower valuations and feel their properties hold more value so will not sell at current market prices.

PropVestment concludes that from a sellers’ perspective the primary factor why sellers are not as active as they would like to be is simply that the returns are just too good, and staying put is the best option. Even those looking to sell, find the potential buyers are not capable of securing the finance to meet asking prices.

LENDERS START LENDING, SELLERS & VALUERS GET REALISTIC

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Stagnant UK Property Market: Buyers Perspective

It has been widely reported that the current market conditions are such with very low volume of transactions, falls in mortgage approvals, and an overall stagnation in the UK property market.

Stagnant

Nationwide reported that house prices rose 0.3% in April but are still down 1.2% on last year.

The number of houses sold in May was up 4.7% on the previous month’s figures and reached the highest level seen since May last year.
House sales were 2.0% fewer than May 2010 but significantly up 14.7% on May 2009 and 18.6% up on May 2008. The recovery was led mainly by activity recorded in the North of England and the Midlands. This is very encouraging.
There was positive news for the number of new ‘For Sale’ instructions received in May. In the UK they were up 1.7% eradicating the -0.5% drop seen in April.

It is important to analyse the factors causing this and the mind set of Buyers, and there finally seems some light at the end of the tunnel.

Just today the UK Base rate was held again at 0.5% for yet another month, all indications suggest that there will be no drastic upwards movement. Therefore many home owners and investors are content with staying with existing properties where they are enjoying very low interest rates often just a fraction over the base rate, if they were to sell off current properties and find new ones, it is almost impossible that they will be able to gain similar rates. They conclude it is better to stay put and use the extra savings to pay off capital rather than buy or sell into new properties.
However with such a low base rate saving rates are also very low, which with current inflation figures mean that real return is actually negative.

PropVestors are better placed to either put extra cash into paying off capital or reinvesting in property rather than having money thats losing money in ISAs or savings accounts.

Investors are seeing much better returns on rentals rather than the negative real return of having money in a savings account.

In other property news today it has been stated that rents in particular in Central London are expected to rise 8-10% in the year to come. Investors are well placed to get great returns. Current renters should also think about becoming FTBs (First Time Buyers)  to avoid high rent increases and instead use the low base rate to get on the property ladder. With these factors there should be upwards pressure on demand and property prices, so what is holding back the market?

The UK mortgage market is still very inactive, even though data is showing a recent increase, from our personal experience and that of our clients the lending criteria is very strict and stringent and only those that fall into a model profile, income base, age, and credit history are the ones where mortgages are being approved. Further to this the LTV (Loan to Value) is still surprisingly low in comparison to boom times.

PropVestment concludes that from a buyers perspective the primary factor why buyers are not as active as they would like to be is simply that the lending is just not available and with prices especially in the South East remaining so high. Even those lucky enough to secure finance, they just can not make the deposits needed to buy when the LTV offered is as low as it is.

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FirstBuy – Does it help “PropVestors” or just another government gimmick?

  • First Time Buyers

    Help for 10,000 FTBs

  • Shared equity means, shared losses
  • Help only for a few FTB and only New Builds

What is it?

1. FirstBuy will be offered on selected properties across a range of new build schemes following an assessment of offers submitted by developers.

2. Eligible purchasers who need assistance to buy will be offered an equity loan of up to 20% of the purchase price. The equity loan will be funded equally by the HCA and the developer. Potential bidders should note that it is an absolute requirement of the programme that developers must provide matchfunding equity.

3. The maximum property price expected for FirstBuy is £280,000, based on the affordability assessment for purchasers.  On an exceptional basis, depending on location, a purchase price of up to £300,000 will be considered.  We expect that most bids will be for lower priced properties which will be favoured, taking account of location.

4. Purchasers will be required to raise funding, (a mortgage plus any deposit where available) of at least 80% of the purchase price. The buyer’s mortgage loan is secured as a first charge on the property in the usual way and ranks ahead of the equity loan charge.

5. Both the developer and the HCA will take an equal second charge over the property to secure their interest. The equity loans are secured as second charges on the property and are on an equal footing between the HCA and developers.

6. The form of equity mortgage will be prescribed by the HCA (and will follow the form of equity mortgage used for HomeBuy Direct, which is familiar to lenders and solicitors, and to the market).  Both the developer and the HCA will lend on the same terms.  The use of a standardised charge will simplify the conveyancing process, make the product more attractive to lenders and help with marketing the product to individuals. Each equity loan term is 25 years but repayment is required on sale of the property. Read more

What does 2011 have in store for the PropVestor: Part three: Interest Rates

Up or Down....

Interest Rates

Philip Shaw, Investec economist
We have recently revised our in-house inflation forecasts with the view that the CPI measure will rise a little above 4% towards the middle of this year, and a risk that this could be 0.5% or so higher than this should the 2.5% increase in VAT be fully passed through.
The committee’s credibility is at stake. But raising the Bank rate from its current 0.5% risks sending the recovery into reverse. We argue that one solution could be to keep interest rates steady, but to start to reverse some of the quantitative easing.

David Kern, British Chambers of Commerce
The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates and the quantitative easing programme unchanged this month was widely expected. We support this decision, but it is important that the MPC perseveres with the existing policy approach, at least until the middle of the year. Recent calls for early increases in rates are ill-advised and should be rejected.
The UK recovery is fragile and risks of a setback are serious. Pressures on businesses and individuals will intensify over the next few months, but we urge the MPC not to over-react to temporary increases in inflation. As long as wage increases remain modest, and disposable incomes continue to be squeezed, it remains highly likely that the surge in inflation will be reversed, and sharp falls can be expected in the final months of 2011 and in 2012.
It is likely that interest rates will need to increase later this year. But the MPC must wait until the economy has absorbed the initial impact of the austerity plan. Premature interest rate increases, while fiscal policy is still being tightened, risk derailing the recovery and could make it harder to implement deficit-cutting measures.

Lee Hopley, EEF chief economist
The debate around the impact of forthcoming austerity measures and above-target inflation will have changed little for the MPC over the past month. For now, however, the balance of risks still supports keeping interest rates and asset purchases on hold. But, if we begin to see price pressures starting to flow through to major wage increases, the case for raising rates will become stronger.

Scott Corfe, CEBR economist
The announcement comes amid a media environment becoming increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living and consistently above-target consumer price index inflation – especially in the light of recent price increases that followed the VAT rise to 20%. Since January 2010, annual CPI inflation has been at or above 3.0%, the upper end of the Bank of England’s target range, prompting some concern that the Bank is losing credibility over its commitment to its central 2% inflation target.
Despite this, we remain wary of being overly hawkish on inflation in the short term. With price growth being primarily driven by government policy (VAT increases) and short-term commodity price shocks, rather than an overheating economy, raising rates now seems premature. Excluding indirect taxes such as VAT, annual consumer price inflation was only 1.6% in November – hardly indicative of out-of-control underlying inflation. Once the impact of VAT on prices drops out of inflation measures in 2012, we anticipate a significant fall in inflation to a level comfortably within the Bank’s target range.
Our central economic forecast suggests 2011 will be an extremely difficult year for the UK, with notable downside risks to growth as the government’s programme of fiscal consolidation gets well under way. With the housing market continuing to falter and question marks looming over the ability of net trade to compensate for weak domestic demand, a rate rise now would be the wrong policy at the wrong time.

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight
Albeit with reduced confidence, we are retaining our view that the Bank of England will hold off from raising interest rates until the fourth quarter. This reflects our belief that growth will slow appreciably in the first half of 2011 and that a soft labour market will prevent higher inflation expectations feeding through to lift wage growth significantly. However, given current mounting inflation risks, we fully acknowledge there is a growing likelihood that the MPC could act earlier than the fourth quarter, and possibly even before midyear. The MPC could well decide that a small near-term interest rate hike would support its credibility by sending out the message that it is serious about its inflation mandate, but would not have a major dampening impact on growth.
Even if interest rates do rise sooner rather than later, the probability remains that they will move up relatively gradually and remain very low compared with past norms, as monetary policy will need to stay loose for an extended period to offset the impact of the major, sustained fiscal squeeze. Consequently, we retain the view that interest rates will only rise to 2% by end 2012.
Meanwhile, we think further quantitative easing is highly unlikely given the inflation risks.

Christina Weisz, Currency Solutions director
Despite the continuing problems with inflation figures, which are coming in month on month well above the 2% target, any potential interest rate rise to counteract the inflationary problem that the Bank faces is complicated by the ongoing introduction of budget cuts, austerity measures, the VAT rise and threat of rising unemployment. All of these have prevented a clearer picture of economic growth to come to the fore.
These developments make it difficult to ascertain whether the economy is strong enough to cope with a rate rise until the next wave of statistics flood in.

PropVestment
Higher inflation, further extenuated by the VAT rise, may mean the BOE decide to raise interest rates, even though this may significantly disrupt the weak recovery. This is an uncertain factor, and could mean rates stay unchanged for 2011 or could rise significantly.

opinions sourced from the Guardian