UK Property Market in 2012, the Investors’ perspective: Part one – House Prices

Looking at various property professionals and organisations we analyse the UK Property Market in this series of articles.

-UK property prices expected to fall up to 3% in 2012RICS

-House price Stagnation remainsNationwide

-Up or Down? Depends where you arePropVestment

House prices are always the primary topic when it comes to analysing the the UK Property Market. 2012 is no different. The question remains what component of house prices should be used in analysis, is it the asking price, is it the RICS or bank valuation or is it the selling price.

In my opinion it is the selling price that is all important taking in the UK property market in all dimensions without any bias. This is house prices, the real deal.

RICS:
Sales of UK residential properties may rise a little in 2012 but prices will struggle to follow suit. Prices at a headline level will edge lower by around 3% across the UK. However, the low level of supply should continue into the coming year, stabilising prices and preventing significant declines.

Nationwide:
“The average home rose in value by 1% in 2011 to £163,822, but fell by 0.2% in December compared with the previous month.
The economic climate was likely to lead to a similar situation for the housing market in 2012. There were geographical differences. Prices in Northern Ireland fell sharply by 8.7% in 2011 but rose in London by 5.5%.

Not enough homes are being built. In 2011 just 107,000 new homes were built. The government has forecast that every year from 2013 to 2023 an extra 240,000 new households will be formed, mainly due to the growing population. This means upward pressure on UK house prices.

However house prices are not only determined by the balance of supply and demand, but by how much money lenders are willing to lend. If prices were to start falling sharply, banks would be even tighter and there would be less and less mortgages approved and therefore less completions.

There may be eventual increases in interest rates further down the line, and no return to the days of easy lending, mean that house prices will fall for several years to come.
House prices have to keep falling until they get back to long-term norms of about three or four times earnings, they are still about seven or eight times earnings – they still have a long way to go.

Is London special?
Central London has been an exception to the rule, along with prosperous parts of the South East. Here house prices  have rise in the past couple of years and are now back to their peak levels. Property prices in London rose by 5.5% in 2011
Firstly many of the new jobs created in the past year or two have been in this part of the UK.
More interesting though is wealthy foreigners who looking for a safe home for their cash by buying a flat or house in central London, as well as your expected Middle East and Asian Investors there has been a significant rise in investors from Greece and Italy who are desperate to get their cash out of their country.

The BBC did a survey among experts, listed below, as you can see not a single individual is predicting an increase.

Property price predictions 2012

  • Ray Boulger – down 4%
  • Bernard Clarke – “a broadly flat market”
  • Jonathan Davis – down 10%
  • Martin Ellis – “unchanged plus or minus 2%”
  • Robert Gardner – “flat to modestly lower”
  • Henry Pryor – down 10%
  • Simon Rubinsohn – down 3%
  • Ed Stansfield – down 5%

PropVestment UK property market House price summary

House prices are a result of multiple market factors, interest rates, mortgage availability and amount, demand and supply etc… from all the data analysed there is not an optimistic outlook for 2012. However there is always opportunity, I very much doubt any significant falls in the South East and London. A drop on prices else where means for affordability that may kick start the market. From an investors perspective rents are also a vital part to any investment so keep watch for the other parts in the series.
Overall prices probably will not rise much but won’t fall significantly either, worry is if the Euro collapses what will happen to our mortgage market? How will our banks react? This is in my opinion the most important factor to keep the market ticking over.

Sources:
http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/rics-property-prices-uk-201112225903.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16356568


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